The Fed Raises Rates Again: What Changes for Dollar-Denominated Wealth

After two years of expected cuts, the Federal Reserve changed direction. On September 16, 2026, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised the U.S. policy rate by 0.25 percentage point, to a range of 3.75% to 4.00% a year — the first increase since 2023. For anyone with part of their wealth in dollars, financing property in the United States, or considering a new allocation, the moment calls for attention.

Why the Fed changed course

The decision was unanimous and came under Kevin Warsh, who took over as Fed chair in May 2026. According to the committee’s statement, U.S. economic activity continues to expand at a solid pace, and inflation measured by the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index — the Fed’s preferred metric — remains above the 2% target. The economic projections released with the decision indicate that a large share of committee members see room for at least one more 0.25-point increase still in 2026, and the median projection only sees inflation converging to the target in 2028.

This is the first hiking cycle since Warsh took office, reversing the expectation that prevailed through the end of 2025 that the Fed would keep cutting rates. After the decision, the dollar strengthened against other currencies, including the real.

What to review now

For anyone with operations or wealth in the United States, three reviews are worth making. The first is the cost of credit: higher rates make dollar mortgages and working-capital financing more expensive, which can weigh on expansion plans or property purchases that depend on U.S. bank financing.

The second is the dollar’s relative appeal: with rates rising in the United States, dollar assets (Treasuries, CDs, U.S. fixed-income funds) become more competitive again versus alternatives in other currencies, which can justify an allocation review for anyone underexposed to the U.S. currency.

The third is the exchange rate on remittances: a stronger dollar makes any transfer of reais to the United States more expensive in practice, whether to pay expenses, invest, or close a purchase. It is worth considering the timing of those transfers in light of this new scenario — without trying to call the bottom of the market, but aware that the short-term trend has changed.